Gymternet, my apologies. I'm on a myth busting tirade.
In my previous post, we looked at whether D-scores were strong predictors of final all-around rankings.
Now, I want to set that post aside, and I want to look at which event is the strongest predictor of final all-around rankings.
On the men's side, conventional wisdom would say that pommel horse is the "make it or break it" event.
And on the women's side, NBC would have us believe that balance beam is the "make it or break it" event.
Well, let's take a look and see how things played out at the 2014 World Championships…
- When it comes to final rankings in the all-around competition in Nanning, all individual event scores are statistically significant.
- So, the question really is, Which event is a stronger predictor of your all-around rank?
- For the men, high bar is the strongest predictor of your final all-around rank.
- For the women, uneven bars is the strongest predictor of your final all-around rank.
- You can see this in the charts of relative importances below.
- Note: We're looking at the final scores for each event.
For the stats nerds…
| B | SE | t | Beta | p | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B0 | 243.0460 | ||||
| FX | -1.9482 | 0.5463 | -3.566 | -0.1885550 | 0.00238 |
| PH | -2.4427 | 0.3393 | -7.200 | -0.2624963 | 1.49e-06 |
| SR | -2.1156 | 0.7591 | -2.787 | -0.1505461 | 0.01265 |
| VT | -3.8930 | 0.6731 | -5.784 | -0.2642798 | 2.20e-05 |
| PB | -2.3847 | 0.3934 | -6.061 | -0.2713863 | 1.27e-05 |
| HB | -3.0664 | 0.4630 | -6.622 | -0.3108039 | 4.32e-06 |
| B | SE | t | Beta | p | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B0 | 177.4893 | ||||
| VT | -2.4841 | 0.7887 | -3.150 | -0.1935402 | 0.00528 |
| UB | -3.4230 | 0.3775 | -9.068 | -0.4794243 | 2.48e-08 |
| BB | -2.9556 | 0.4198 | -7.040 | -0.3589602 | 1.06e-06 |
| FX | -3.0725 | 0.4615 | -6.658 | -0.3764892 | 2.29e-06 |
Eureka! This explains so much!
No wonder Oleg Verniaiev struggles in the all-around so much.
High bar is undoubtedly his weakest event, and when it comes to the final all-around rankings, high bar is pretty darn important.
Bretschneider? Epke? How much do I have to pay you to teach Oleg a Kovacs?
We need to improve Oleg's high bar! STAT!
#PrayForOleg
High bar is undoubtedly his weakest event, and when it comes to the final all-around rankings, high bar is pretty darn important.
Bretschneider? Epke? How much do I have to pay you to teach Oleg a Kovacs?
We need to improve Oleg's high bar! STAT!
#PrayForOleg
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